11th Mar 2019 https://nfind.uk/brexit_cliff_edge/index.php/newsletter=21 brexit_cliff_edge

Jobs at Risk

Financial Times A Japanese pharmaceutical company that based its European headquarters in London five years ago and was praised for doing so by then London mayor Boris Johnson is now planning to move the base to the Netherlands in preparation for Brexit. Shionogis planned move makes it the latest in a string of Japanese companies including Panasonic and Sony looking to restructure their European operations to insulate themselves from disruption caused by Britains departure from the EU. https://www.ft.com/content/d4ac54e6-4310-11e9-b168-96a37d002cd3 10th Mar 2019

Jobs at Risk

BBC Brexit could hit the bottom line of a huge new crossIrish border dairy business its boss has said. Michael Hanley is the chief executive of Lakeland Dairies. It has just merged with another big player in the Northern Ireland milk market LacPatrick to create a new venture. Mr Hanley said Brexit would mean extra costs build inefficiency into the business and could reduce profits https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-47489777 7th Mar 2019

Jobs at Risk

Reuters More than 275 financial firms are moving a combined 1.2 trillion 925.4 billion in assets funds and thousands of staff from Britain to the European Union in readiness for Brexit at a cost of up to 4 billion a report from a think tank said on Monday. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks/brexit-fallout-on-uk-finance-intensifies-think-tank-idUKKBN1QS00B?utm_source=applenews 11th Mar 2019

Jobs at Risk

Reuters Northern Ireland businesses urged British lawmakers on Sunday to seek a compromise over the countrys departure from the European Union and avoid the economic and social risks the province faces in crashing out of the bloc without a deal. Ahead of a vote on Tuesday on the divorce agreement struck with the bloc last year more than 50 businesses warned members of parliament in an open letter of the dangers of failing to unite behind a way forward that avoids a hard border and protects peace and economic progress in Northern Ireland. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-nireland/northern-ireland-firms-warn-of-economic-social-risks-from-no-deal-brexit-idUKKBN1QR003?feedType=RSS&ampfeedName=businessNews 10th Mar 2019

Jobs at Risk

Press and Journal An industry report has suggested WTOstyle tariffs could add 500 million to the sectors annual EU trade bill. The prospect of more customs redtape has led to fears that equipment imported from Europe will be delayed. With EU nationals accounting for 5 of oil and gas workers in the UK the industry is also anxious to protect its workforce. On the question of tariffs Mr Hunt said there would be clarity on the issue if Mrs Mays deal is backed by parliament on Tuesday. https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/holyrood/1694217/foreign-secretary-jeremy-hunt-says-oil-and-gas-has-resilience-to-withstand-brexit/ 8th Mar 2019

Economic Impact

Reuters The Bank of England has told some UK lenders to triple the amount of easytosell assets they hold to help them weather any nodeal Brexit crisis the Financial Times reported on Sunday citing people familiar with the situation. The BOE has told some lenders to hold enough liquid assets to be able to cope with stress of 100 days instead of the regular 30 days that BOEs Prudential Regulation Authority rules demand the FT reported. A Bank of England spokeswoman said the central bank had no immediate comment. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-boe-brexit/boe-tells-some-uk-lenders-to-triple-amount-of-liquid-assets-before-brexit-ft-idUKKBN1QR0W2 10th Mar 2019

Economic Impact

The Independent Belgiums customs authority is advising companies that export to the UK to halt shipments after Brexit day to avoid customs chaos in the event of a nodeal scenario. Kristian Vanderwaeren chief executive of Belgian customs called for a Brexitpauze after 29 March and said firms should do as much of their exporting as they can before new controls have to come in. Who are we as customs to give the business world instructions But we are still asking the SMEs and all other parties to wait. Do the necessary export to your customers before 29 March he told Belgian business newspaper De Tijd. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-no-deal-belgium-uk-exports-customs-theresa-may-a8813571.html 9th Mar 2019

Economic Impact

Reuters UK Few expect London to lose its position as Europes biggest financial hub but Britains departure from the EU is turning into a multibillioneuro boost for the blocs protracted efforts to build a deeper capital market to rival the UK capital. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-trading-analysis-idUKKCN1QP1BY 8th Mar 2019

Administrative Fall Out

CBI More than 50 businesses have written an open letter to MPs expressing concern over the prospect of a no deal Brexit. Local businesses believe that the failure to approve a deal with Europe on the UKs withdrawal from the EU will have significant repercussions for the local economy. Such a scenario will both hinder indigenous and foreign direct investment it would result in significant job losses and will stifle opportunities for the next generation across Northern Ireland. http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/northern-ireland-businesses-voice-fears-of-no-deal-brexit/ 10th Mar 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Yahoo! A nodeal Brexit could cause serious problems for Scotlands housing sector the housing minister has warned. Kevin Stewart will say that leaving the EU without a deal could damage investor confidence in residential assets and the buildtorent market when he writes to housing organisations and stakeholders next week. He will also say that inflation and interest rate fluctuation could affect rents the financial health of Registered Social Landlords RSLs and the availability and cost of finance for newbuild homes. https://uk.news.yahoo.com/no-deal-brexit-could-damage-000100676.html 10th Mar 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Indy100.com With just 20 days to go until Brexit and still no deal in sight or any idea as to what on Earth is going on British people are starting to get worried. https://www.indy100.com/article/brexit-businesswoman-tears-leave-deal-eu-bbc-news-8815646 10th Mar 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Times Researchers gave 11225 volunteers psychological tests before the referendum and asked how they intended to vote. Results suggest that leavers tended to be less numerate more impulsive and more prone to accept the unsupported claims of authoritarian figures. Compared with remain voters leave voters displayed significantly lower levels of numeracy and appeared more reliant on impulsive thinking said the researchers. The study was commissioned by Britains Online Privacy Foundation and analysed by scientists at Missouri University. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-voters-are-less-bright-than-remainers-7nk8s3272 10th Mar 2019

Administrative Fall Out

BBC Consumers could face rising costs postBrexit a retail expert has warned. NI Retail Consortium director Aodhn Connolly said a nodeal Brexit would mean a rise in household costs. Speaking on BBC Radio Ulsters On Your Behalf he said he had heard of a small amount of stockpiling but advised people not to panic buy. Mr Connolly was one of a panel of experts who addressed Brexit concerns at the Consumer Councils consumer parliament in Belfast on Friday. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-47507199 9th Mar 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Express.co.uk Restrictions have been put in place to stop police officers taking annual leave as the Brexit deadline draws evercloser. The move according to police chiefs will mean there will be sufficient officers and staff available to deal with any issues that may arise from Brexit. The Metropolitan Police has placed restrictions on the amount of leave their staff can take as well as other forces such as Hampshire Police. Officers said restrictions apply to certain dates in March and April 2019 though they told Sky News they would not be cancelling all holiday for officers. It said the measure was to allow the service to have sufficient officers and staff available to deal with any issues arising from the UK leaving the EU. https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1097975/brexit-news-police-holiday-banned-metropolitan-police-hampshire-theresa-may-michel-barnier 9th Mar 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Financial Times ...back in Cuxhaven both Mr Zint and Mr Barth sounded confident that even a nodeal Brexit would leave their business broadly intact. But they like much of the rest of German business found it hard to hide their bewilderment at the political course set by the UK. Mr Zint said When you see that the head of Airbus questions whether the company can still have production in the UK or when Honda says they will close their plant you would expect that more people would voice their concerns regarding Brexit. https://www.ft.com/content/943426e6-3e97-11e9-b896-fe36ec32aece 9th Mar 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Sky News A Sky Data poll has revealed 28 of people are stockpiling in preparation for a nodeal Brexit or have thought about doing so. In Cornwall Nevine Mann and her family have been buying extra food and supplies since last summer to make sure she is prepared if there is no deal as Britain leaves the European Union. https://news.sky.com/story/stockpiling-for-no-deal-brexit-buffers-my-family-from-risks-11658683 9th Mar 2019

Administrative Fall Out

New Scientist Scientists fear the UK has lost its way because of Brexit and scientific research could suffer as a result the head of the UKs biggest biomedical research lab has warned. Nobel prizewinner Paul Nurse said scientists were concerned that the UKs decision to leave the EU was driven by the country becoming less outwardlooking. The motivation for Brexit seems to be a turning in of the country on itself. Turning away from the rest of the world not just Europe. And science thrives on the exact opposite the former Royal Society president told New Scientist. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2196059-nobel-winner-paul-nurse-on-brexit-the-uk-is-turning-in-on-itself/ 9th Mar 2019

Administrative Fall Out

France24 As French customs officers staged the sixth day of a worktorule strike this Saturday airport officers joined customs workers in charge of Eurostar trains and of the Channel port of Calais sparking travel chaos throughout the week. Eurostar trains from Paris to London were running up to two hours late trucks were stacked up on the approaches to the Channel port of Calais and long lines were reported in airports across France on Saturday. As the Brexit deadline of March 29 approaches French customs officers are demanding higher pay and better working conditions with actions all over France. https://www.france24.com/en/20190309-brexit-french-customs-strike-delay-eurostar-airports-train-channel-tunnel 9th Mar 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Irish Times Rocketing prices customs holdups delivery delays obstacles to returning unwanted purchases and a dramatic curtailment in the retail choices and rights available to Irish consumers are just some of the problems online shoppers here may be hit with if the UK crashes out of the European Union without a deal in three weeks time. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/consumer/online-shopping-after-brexit-higher-prices-slower-deliveries-1.3817878 9th Mar 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The New York Times Like the election of President Trump the 2016 Brexit referendum vote crystallized divisions between cities and towns young and old the beneficiaries of globalization and those left behind. And far from fading the Brexit divide seems to have become entrenched within many British workplaces families and social circles. The divide shows no sign of narrowing. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/09/world/europe/brexit-friendship.html 9th Mar 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Financial Times The Brexit effect is beginning to cast a shadow over a traditional aspect of British life holidaymakers pursuit of European sun. With concerns rising about a nodeal Brexit that could involve border delays the travel industry is reporting that UK consumers have changed their behaviour in recent weeks. Data from the research group GfK show that summer bookings for overseas holidays from the UK were rising until the last week in January. But since then there have been falls of 910 per cent when compared with the same weeks last year. https://www.ft.com/content/4574911a-3b7e-11e9-b72b-2c7f526ca5d0 8th Mar 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Independent Women from EU countries living in the UK fear discrimination after Brexit because the registration system is confused by their maiden names. The glitch will be place them in danger of being denied jobs housing or NHS treatment campaigners say even after being given settled status to stay with a promise of protected rights. The warning is being issued to coincide with International Womens Day as part of wider fears that Brexit will be a trap for abused women those who work parttime or have taken career breaks. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-citizens-uk-brexit-maiden-names-a8812956.html 8th Mar 2019

Administrative Fall Out

BBC Civil servants have said they have not taken a decision on whether to extend an independent environmental protection agency to Northern Ireland postBrexit. That is in spite of publication of a letter from a senior official that appeared to indicate it was to happen. In it he said the extension of proposed legislation covering England to include Northern Ireland had been sought and agreed. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-47501633 8th Mar 2019

Administrative Fall Out

BBC A nodeal Brexit threatens billions of pounds of chemical imports the head of the Chemical Industries Association Stephen Elliott has warned. He says secondary legislation needed to copy EU regulations into UK law contains significant gaps. The loophole could halt UK imports of chemicals by EUregistered companies from countries outside the EU he says. Put simply the drugs dont work the cars dont run and the planes dont fly without chemicals and chemistry. Unless the law is changed he says the import of billions of pounds worth of chemicals used across UK manufacturing would have to come to a sudden halt if the UK left the EU with no deal on 29 March https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47490027 8th Mar 2019

Administrative Fall Out

The Guardian BMW gave a clear signal that a nodeal Brexit in which trade defaults to World Trade Organization terms including tariffs on cars and parts could prove destructive for the British car industry. BMWs Mini brand would face a huge burden according to the board member Peter Schwarzenbauer which might make it consider moving out of its Cowley plant in Oxford. Top executives from Toyota Bentley and Vauxhalls owner PSA all expressed similar concerns about short and longerterm costs if barriers to trade between the UK and EU are erected. Maxime Picat PSAs operational director for Europe said Its difficult for me to imagine that you can rebuild a UK automotive industry selfcentred looking only at the UK. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/mar/08/geneva-motor-show-six-things-we-learned 8th Mar 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Edinburgh News A UK Brexit minister has said special allowance could be made for migrant workers to come and fill jobs in the tourism and hospitality industry if it can be shown they are needed. On a visit to Edinburgh Tory peer Lord Callanan who has been number two at the Brexit department since 2017 said freedom of movement would end when the UK leaves the EU but the government was still consulting on what immigration rules should then apply. If there is a necessity for immigration in certain sectors that is one of the things we will take into consideration. https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/politics/uk-minister-says-migrant-workers-may-still-be-allowed-to-come-to-work-in-tourism-industry-after-brexit-1-4885601 8th Mar 2019

Administrative Fall Out

Unearthed In the early 90s against the wishes of the main fishermens organisations the government formalised the right of sector fishermen to move licences and track records between vessels opening up a new kind of trade in quota. Detaching track record from vessels in this way ensured quota taken out of the pool would never come back to it. This was followed by other deregulatory moves like the liberalisation of quota swaps between POs. In 1999 the UK replaced track records with fixed quota allocations which give the holder an unchanging share of the UKs quota. These were dished out to vessels in the sector based on their catches in the midnineties. This change discouraged the race to fish but also made quota easier to swap sell or lease to others. https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2019/03/07/fishing-brexit-uk-fleetwood/ 7th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Times Theresa May is facing growing pressure over more than 1 million raised by her party from Britons based in tax havens and their UK companies before the 2017 general election. Senior MPs said that the prime minister had serious questions to answer about the money which was accepted even though a law was passed in 2009 that was meant to clamp down on donations from offshore. The bill banned large personal donations from anyone not resident or domiciled in the UK for tax purposes but successive governments have failed to enact it with a commencement order. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tories-under-attack-after-tax-haven-donations-hrj29tshw 11th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Independent Theresa May has been warned she could be forced out of Downing Street if her Brexit strategy is dismantled by MPs this week in a series of critical votes. As negotiations entered the eleventh hour the prime minister was desperately attempting to salvage her withdrawal deal with a plane reported to be on standby at RAF Northolt to fly her to Brussels at the first sign of EU officials shifting their position. However it remained unclear whether the prime minister would be making a dash to the Belgian capital as hopes of achieving any significant concessions appeared to fade. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-brussels-eu-deal-commons-votes-referendum-a8816731.html 11th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Telegraph Tony Blair has been accused of unacceptable behaviour after it emerged he has been briefing Emmanuel Macron on how to force Britain to stay in the EU. The former Labour prime minister believes that if the EU stands its ground over the Brexit deal Parliament will cave in and accept a customs union which would keep Britain yoked to Brussels or a second referendum that could cancel Brexit altogether. Sources in Paris confirmed to The Telegraph that Mr Blair had been speaking to the French President about Brexit. He is reported to have told Mr Macron to hold firm and wait for events to play out in London that end in Britain staying in the EU. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/10/tony-blair-secretly-advising-emmanuel-macron-brexit-former-pm/ 10th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

Daily Mirror If Theresa Mays deal is rejected by Parliament again on Tuesday it will be another humiliation for her her Government and for our country too. I know how frustrated people are with this situation. These past two years weve been badly let down by an incapable Prime Minister and an incompetent Government too busy fighting with itself to focus on what is in the best interests of the country. After two years of failure we need a change of approach. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/keir-starmer-well-vote-down-14111715 10th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

BBC MPs are set to hold key votes next week on the terms of Brexit the outcome of which could determine whether the UK has greater flexibility to set its own trade tariffs. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47458922 10th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Independent A long delay to Brexit would be unacceptable to a majority of the British public according to an exclusive poll days before critical votes in the House of Commons. Some 52 per cent of people do not want a delay to last more than six months the survey by BMG Research for The Independent indicated. The data flies in the face of extensions advocated in Brussels by Remainers and even some Brexiteers. They have talked about pushing back the date of the UKs departure for a year or more something supported by fewer than one in five according to the survey. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-vote-delay-poll-leave-remain-eu-a8814926.html 10th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Times Michel Barniers unveiling of his proposals on a social media platform was highly unusual. Sources said it was because of fear of a cynical blame game over the faltering talks. Thats why he published the proposals on Twitter to show he was exploring avenues and not just saying no to everything a source said. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/torrid-brexit-backstop-talks-descend-into-twitter-duel-d68f33fqh 10th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Guardian The cabinet minister in charge of Brexit has held detailed talks with Labour MPs who are championing plans for a second referendum amid signs of mounting desperation inside Theresa Mays government about what to do if the prime ministers deal suffers another crushing defeat on Tuesday. At least 40 Labour MPs and all but about nine Tories are said to be opposed to a second referendum although party sources believe this would change if Jeremy Corbyn came out strongly in favour. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/09/brexit-secretary-met-pro-referendum-labour-peter-kyle-phil-wilson 10th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

BBC Conservative MPs should back Theresa Mays deal this week or risk losing Brexit altogether Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has warned. There was wind in the sails of those opposing Brexit and the consequences for the party will be devastating if it is not delivered he said. MPs will vote again on the deal on Tuesday after rejecting it in January. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47514248 10th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Guardian After weeks of nonannouncements and paltry incentives to persuade MPs in towns ravaged by government neglect nothing has changed. This is the same bad Brexit deal that went down to the worst parliamentary defeat in history. Its why Labour MPs should reject it again. The governments own forecasts show that acceptance of these terms would be set to lower GDP by 100bn the equivalent of losing the annual output of Wales. Whatever is gained from reduced EU contributions would be wiped out by the economic damage. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/10/brexit-tories-target-workers-roll-back-rights-mays-deal 10th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

Financial Times Theresa May faced mounting pressure to quit on Sunday as Conservative Eurosceptic rebels claimed she might have to sacrifice her premiership to win them over ahead of a crucial Brexit vote this week. Several cabinet ministers have said Mrs May should announce her plans to resign to win the support of Tory Brexiters who believe that a change in Number 10 would signal a more robust approach to talks on a future UKEU trade deal. https://www.ft.com/content/618ad20c-4316-11e9-a965-23d669740bfb 10th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Times Shes famous for her witty takedowns of the political class but Jess Phillips is also dealing with so many death threats she has nine locks on her front door. The MP who had her first child when she was 22 and grew up with a brother who was a heroin addict tells Rachel Sylvester where she thinks her party is going wrong https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/jess-phillips-i-think-id-be-a-good-prime-minister-swktssd7s 10th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Sun The Sun on Sunday said MPs must this week rally around Theresa Mays Brexit deal it is the only way the UK can achieve a dignified departure from the EU and honour the will of the people. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8602402/theresa-may-brexit-deal-alternatives-shameful-betrayal/ 10th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Times Most agree that the prime minister is close to losing control of events. By the end of the week we could have no deal no Brexit or no prime minister one cabinet source said. Stuck between the rock of an EU reluctant to budge and the hard place of a parliament tiring of her kicking the can down the road May faces a new plot this weekend by MPs to grab control of events and force her towards a soft Brexit. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/by-the-end-of-the-week-we-could-have-no-deal-no-brexit-or-no-pm-c8l83ffwn 10th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Guardian Northern Ireland is again at the very heart of the Conservative governments Brexit crisis. This is not an accident. It is there essentially because Theresa Mays government is committed to three things that cannot be reconciled. One is the peace process promise that Brexit would do nothing to restore a hard border between the UK and the Republic of Ireland. The second is the promise that Mrs May made in 2017 to the DUP that there would be no regulatory divergence in the Irish Sea. The third is the Torys rights doctrinaire passion for leaving the EU single market and customs union which Mrs May very foolishly made into Brexit red lines. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/10/the-guardian-view-on-mps-and-brexit-time-to-set-a-new-course 10th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

BuzzFeed News Tim Dawson is the only person publicly associated with Britains Future. The group has spent almost 350000 on Facebook since November raising questions over the influence of dark money at a crucial point in the Brexit process. https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/mysterious-facebook-brexit-group-britains-future-tim-dawson 9th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

RTE.ie The price the UK would have to pay for walking away would be reverting to the original Northern Irelandspecific backstop Theresa May rejected one year ago something quickly recognised by the DUPs Nigel Dodds. Officials in Brussels describe Barniers offer as defensive brought about by sense of shock over what Geoffrey Cox was proposing and the exaggerated expectations in Westminster over what the EU would be prepared to offer. https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0309/1035261-brexit-tony-connelly/ 9th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Telegraph Mays speech in Grimsby yesterday was a waste of time. The PM rehearsed the case for her Withdrawal Agreement and urged MPs to vote for it on Tuesday but the EU hasnt given her the changes necessary to appease Brexiteers and it is still likely to be defeated. In fact the political situation hasnt altered since the Chequers agreement of July last year. Since then the Government has been going round and round in circles trying to sell the same Brexitinnameonly. Leavers say no the Government seeks alterations the EU says non too. The public meanwhile watches the dance in disbelief. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2019/03/09/government-cannot-fool-voters-brexit/ 9th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Times Labour will oppose any delay to Brexit that will require Britain to take part in the European parliament elections Emily Thornberry has said. Theresa May has promised to give MPs the chance to ask Brussels to extend Article 50 if they vote down her agreement on Tuesday. Remaining in the EU beyond July however will require the UK to take part in the elections due to be held in May which the prime minister has said she is determined to avoid. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/thornberry-we-want-short-delay-to-avoid-eu-election-hrnzxl8bk?shareToken=cf893a71bcd91dadf2c50338c0e3941f 9th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Independent The offer by Mr Barnier for a unilateral exit for Great Britain but not Northern Ireland effectively lets the UK revert to the original EU plan for the backstop which would have put customs checks on the Irish sea between Northern Ireland and the mainland. The new offer is basically going back to the old backstop one EU official said of the plan which does not require the reopening of the withdrawal agreement. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-eu-offer-uk-vote-northern-ireland-a8814491.html 9th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

Politico.eu David Gauke the U.K.s secretary of state for justice said a nodeal Brexit would be a disaster for the country including the immediate ending of U.K.EU cooperation on vital law enforcement issues. In the worstcase scenario if we had significant difficulties with food supplies no one is going to be left starving but if there are empty shelves can that result in violence and more criminal cases he said in an interview with the Times published Saturday. Of course it can. https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-no-deal-david-gauke-nuk-minister-warns-of-violence/ 9th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

Politico.eu Andrea Leadsom the leader of the U.K.s House of Commons on Saturday dismissed efforts by the European Unions Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier to offer a solution to the Brexit impasse and avoid a hard border in Ireland calling his statement disappointing. https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-ireland-deal-uk-minister-rejects-barniers-backstop-reassurances/ 9th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

Slugger O'Toole As often happens in difficult negotiations the parties become fixated on a technical details they fancy often wrongly will clear a roadblock. This is called synecdoche substituting a part for whole which is too big to contemplate . It has its psychological attractions as it diverts from the greater intractability. https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/03/09/were-back-to-the-dup-as-the-touchstone-for-a-brexit-deal/comment-page-1/ 9th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Telegraph Ministers have been warned that MPs supporting an amendment to delay Brexit could politicise the monarchy and lead to a full blown constitutional crisis causing the Government to lose its ability to govern according to leaked documents seen by the Telegraph. The explosive memo advising the cabinet as Theresa May battles to win Tuesdays second meaningful vote warns that supporting any amendment retabled by Labours Yvette Cooper and Tories Oliver Letwin and Nick Boles could pave the way for a bill to change the day of our EU exit and bind the Government into a permanent customs union. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/08/leaked-memo-reveals-ministers-warned-brexit-plot-keep-uk-permanent/ 8th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Irish Times The EU has accomodated the UKs demands but never prioritised them above the rights of the remaining 27 member states. So it has pursued 3 goals demonstrate the centrality of the EU in governing transnational relations in Europe membership matters and brings benefits safeguard the union as a rulesbased system https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132 8th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

BBC Theresa May has asked the EU for one more push to get her Brexit deal through Parliament and warned that if it fails we may never leave at all. The prime minister said the UK had tabled serious proposals to resolve the deadlock over the Irish backstop. Warning of a moment of crisis if the deal was rejected again the PM told EU leaders Lets get it done. The EU said it would give legal force to assurances already made that the UK could not be stuck in a customs union. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47487320 8th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

Financial Times Philip Hammond has urged Eurosceptic Conservatives to stop agonising about the socalled Irish backstop and swing behind Theresa Mays Brexit deal saying its approval would allow him to release billions of pounds for stretched public services. The chancellor said in an interview that the backstop plans in the agreement which could force the UK into an EU customs union as a last resort to avoid a hard Irish border were not real world problems. Eurosceptics fear the measure could lock Britain into close ties with Brussels in perpetuity. https://www.ft.com/content/949e80b6-418c-11e9-b896-fe36ec32aece 8th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

Express.co.uk Theresa May might not be Prime Minister by the end of April political commentator and broadcaster Iain Dale argued on BBC Newsnight on Friday. Mr Dale used a lengthy intervention on the current affairs programme to explain the precise course of action he believes will spell Mrs Mays demise. He started by examining the most likely course of action when the Prime Minister brings her muchbeleaguered deal before the House of Commons again next week. MPs are due to vote on the plan on Tuesday March 12. If Mrs Mays deal does not go through Parliament France and Lithuania have indicated they would veto an extension to Article 50. The only option France has hinted at is a twoyear delay period which would be completely unpalatable to Brexiteers in the Commons. Mr Dale added in any of these scenarios he does not believe Theresa May could be Prime Minister by the end of April. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1097787/Brexit-news-theresa-may-latest-BBC-newsnight-iain-dale-leave-EU-today-vote-article-50 8th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

Daily Mirror Tonight Mr Barnier said the EU would commit to letting the UK exit the backstop but only one part of it a shared customs union with the EU. That means the other provisions would have to stay a move critics say will divide Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK. Furious Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay hit back on Twitter within minutes tweeting With a very real deadline looming now is not the time to rerun old arguments. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-eu-chief-michel-barnier-14107613 8th Mar 2019

Political Shenanigans

The Sun Jeremy Hunt is now seen as the frontrunner to replace Theresa May having significantly stepped up his leadership bid with secret breakfasts for Cabinet ministers. The Sun has learned that the Foreign Secretary is billing himself as the unity candidate as he tries to woo MPs making different pitches to Leavers and Remainers. As speculation spirals among Tory MPs that the Brexit crisis could force the PM to resign within weeks Mr Hunt is even said to have started to ask senior ministers what jobs they want in his Cabinet in exchange for their backing. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8595553/jeremy-hunt-theresa-may-secret-breakfast-meetings-pm/ 8th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Independent Theresa May has been warned she could be forced out of Downing Street if her Brexit strategy is dismantled by MPs this week in a series of critical votes. As negotiations entered the eleventh hour the prime minister was desperately attempting to salvage her withdrawal deal with a plane reported to be on standby at RAF Northolt to fly her to Brussels at the first sign of EU officials shifting their position. However it remained unclear whether the prime minister would be making a dash to the Belgian capital as hopes of achieving any significant concessions appeared to fade. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-brussels-eu-deal-commons-votes-referendum-a8816731.html 11th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Telegraph he EU is preparing to impose punitive conditions on Britain as its price for agreeing a Brexit delay if Theresa May is forced to ask for an extension this week. Member states are hardening their attitudes towards a delay and will demand legal and financial conditions including a multibillion pound increase to the 39bn divorce payment. With no signs of a breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations to change the existing exit deal Parliament is expected to reject the deal for a second time on Tuesday before voting later in the week to extend Article 50. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/10/eu-prepares-demand-multi-billion-pound-increase-divorce-payment/ 10th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Independent The new constituencybyconstituency model based on YouGov polling for the Peoples Vote campaign of more than 25000 voters presents grim reading for Downing Street ahead of Tuesdays meaningful vote on Ms Mays Brexit agreement. If dont knows are excluded from the polling which was conducted in January the results add that there is a majority support in just two constituencies in England Scotland and Wales for the prime ministers deal. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-brexit-deal-mp-house-of-commons-eu-brussels-peoples-vote-a8815826.html 10th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Times The culture of bullying intolerance and division is a betrayal of the hopes that young people had invested in Corbyn the Pied Piper of Labour who turns 70 in May. As long as he remains leader the divisions can only deepen. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/corbyns-bullying-labour-party-is-dashing-the-hopes-of-the-young-fbnv7ktzh 10th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

BBC Two leading Brexiteers have said any delay to Brexit would do incalculable harm to public trust in politics. Writing in the Sunday Telegraph Tory MP Steve Baker and the DUPs Nigel Dodds said the extended uncertainty would be a political calamity. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47511848 10th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Sun Brexit negotiator Olly Robbins and his team ran up a 140000 bill for travel and hotels in three months government figures reveal. Best for Britain boss Eloise Todd said This is a huge waste of money. In the short space of three months the government spent hundreds of thousands of pounds on travel and accommodation to negotiate a deal that was defeated by an historic margin. It makes no sense to carry on spending like this when there are plenty of other priorities. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8602423/brexit-negotiator-olly-robbins-140k-bill-travel/ 10th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Independent Arron Banks flouted an agreement to suspend Brexit campaigning after the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox according to an investigation by Channel 4 News. Nigel Farages ally ordered Leave.EU team to up the spend on Facebook and press it harder emails obtained by the programme reveal the morning after the killing that shocked the nation. Channel 4 said the emails also showed a Leave.EU press officer drafted a press release accusing the media of politicising Ms Coxs murder for the Remain side but in the name of the Labour Leave campaign group. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/arron-banks-leave-eu-brexit-campaign-jo-cox-murder-nigel-farage-a8814866.html 10th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

Evening Standard Leading Peoples Vote campaigner Caroline Lucas today delivered the verdict that Theresa May will call a second Brexit referendum once she is boxed into a corner over her Withdrawal Agreement. Green MP Ms Lucas pointed to the Prime Ministers shameless history of Uturns predicting Mrs May will offer a second vote when it suits her. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/green-mp-caroline-lucas-brands-theresa-may-shameless-over-brexit-and-says-she-thinks-pm-will-call-a4085761.html 10th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Times Two of Jeremy Corbyns closest aides directly intervened to lift the suspension of an activist accused of antisemitism according to leaked emails. Seumas Milne the Labour leaders director of strategy and communications told party officials to reinstate Glyn Secker after two of them had ruled that he be kicked out for joining a Facebook group where members posted messages denying the Holocaust. Milne stepped in after Andrew Murray another aide to Corbyn who is also the Unite unions chief of staff stated that the leader himself was interested in this one. Secker was readmitted to the party shortly afterwards. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/seamus-milne-and-corbyn-aide-blocked-anti-semitism-suspensions-f7c3zjc0j 10th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Telegraph heresa May is facing increasing pressure to resign within weeks after it was claimed she has lost the backing of all but two of her Cabinet ministers. The Prime Minister has already said she will not contest the 2022 general election but her ministers want her gone by July so that a new leader can conduct the next phase of the Brexit negotiations if Britain avoids a no deal exit. Members of the Cabinet have privately discussed whether they should tell her at the end of this week that her time is up after what is expected to be a series of disastrous votes in Parliament. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/10/cabinet-minister-claims-two-members-cabinet-still-support-theresa/?li_source=LI&ampli_medium=li-recommendation-widget 10th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Guardian There are no riskfree options now no steadyasshe goes oldfashioned British compromise. The whole issue has to be reframed reenergised and rescued from its present captivity. Jeremy Hunt the foreign secretary told Marr that the deals failure this week would risk Brexit paralysis. But where do he and his colleagues imagine we are right now https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/10/mps-self-interest-brexit-vote 10th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

BBC The Conservatives arrogance could lead to the unravelling of the UK according to Wales first minister. Mark Drakeford said the partys grace and favour attitude to devolution could put the UKs future in danger. He said that Labour was a dedicated devolutionist party. In the end it is the socalled unionists who pose the greatest threat to the union of the United Kingdom he said speaking at the Scottish Labour Party conference in Dundee. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-47510185 9th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The National It was hardly surprising that Jeremy Hunt should be at it again this week in Glasgow when he contemptuously claimed that of course the UK Government would refuse any request for a Section 30 order from the Scottish Government. What was incredible however was what followed when he advised the Scottish Government to concentrate on delivering in the areas of health and education instead. https://www.thenational.scot/news/17488584.mike-russell-jeremy-hunt-perfectly-symbolises-westminster-arrogance/ 9th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Times Ministers are to launch a 3.5 million advertising campaign within weeks to encourage people from the European Union to secure their status in Britain after Brexit. About 3.7 million EU citizens live in this country and the information campaign will focus particularly on areas where a large number of them live. The first phase will begin days before the full launch of the settlement application process. The campaign will include advertising on billboards and bus stops and at railway stations. There will be adverts on radio catchup TV and websites and on social media. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-3-5m-ads-ask-eu-citizens-to-stay-tnfn2s3jv 9th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Independent It seems Jeremy Corbyn is sifting through the Brexit allsorts desperate to find any alternative to the one he doesnt like a peoples vote. His latest dodge is to throw his support behind a Norwayplus option. This would essentially see the UK join the European Economic Area EEA whose members are bound by many European laws but without any influence over their content. This would represent a serious and significant loss of sovereignty. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/letters/corbyn-second-referendum-peoples-vote-final-say-a8814016.html 9th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Guardian Five leading green organisations have called on Theresa May to delay Brexit to avoid losing environmental protections created by decades of campaigning. Friends of the Earth Greenpeace UK Green Alliance E3G and ChemTrust have said the prime minister should try to extend article 50 because the government has failed to live up to its promise that existing environmental standards would be maintained or even enhanced. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/mar/09/delay-brexit-to-save-environment-green-charities-warn-pm 9th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Independent So let me get this straight a Brexit driven by a hard rightwing Tory government is just what we need to protect workers rights health and safety and the environment The Centre for Policy Studies powers the thought behind hard Brexiteer plans protecting workers rights health and safety and the environment would simply get torn to pieces in future even more right wing Tory administrations https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-left-wing-caroline-flint-corbyn-lexit-no-deal-theresa-may-a8815191.html 9th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Telegraph Theresa Mays speech in Grimsby yesterday was a waste of time. The political situation hasnt altered since the Chequers agreement of July last year. Since then the Government has been going round and round in circles trying to sell the same Brexitinnameonly. Leavers say no the Government seeks alterations the EU says non too. The public meanwhile watches the dance in disbelief. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2019/03/09/parliament-will-suffer-terrible-backlash-brexit-doesnt-happen/ 9th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

Politico.eu The failure to secure a deal to leave the European Union may lead to violence on British streets according to a senior British lawmaker. David Gauke the U.K.s secretary of state for justice said a nodeal Brexit would be a disaster for the country including the immediate ending of U.K.EU cooperation on vital law enforcement issues. https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-no-deal-david-gauke-nuk-minister-warns-of-violence/ 9th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Scotsman Hunt should be doing everything he can to ensure the UK and EU do indeed remain the best of friends given our main alternatives include Trumps America China and Russia. His attempt to shift blame onto the EU for what would be the UKs failure sounds worryingly like the Government has given up hope for Mays deal and already started its nodeal PR campaign with a blame Brussels theme. If it happens a nodeal Brexit followed by a recession so bad it could affect the global economy will be no ones fault but our own. https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/no-deal-brexit-will-be-the-uk-s-fault-not-the-eu-s-leader-comment-1-4886389 9th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Spectator Yesterday in Grimsby she turned to her own backbenchers telling them Reject the deal and noone knows what will happen. We may not leave the EU for many months. We may leave without the protections a deal provides we may never leave at all. She is of course right noone knows what will happen on Tuesday nor in the coming three weeks before 29 March. It does her no credit that she has allowed it to get to such a late stage with businesses still having no idea how to prepare for Brexit or no Brexit. But one thing is for sure hard Brexit or no Brexit at all Mays deal was and remains the worst of all worlds. https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/03/it-would-be-a-mistake-for-tory-rebels-to-back-mays-brexit-deal/ 9th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

Bloomberg Theresa Mays aides are increasingly concerned that Tuesdays vote on her Brexit deal could result in an even worse humiliation than she endured in a similar vote in January the Sunday Times reported. The majority against the government then was 230 the biggest defeat for a prime minister in more than a century. Its bloody bad the Times cited one of her aides as saying. We are at Defcon 2. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-09/may-could-lose-march-12-brexit-vote-by-huge-margin-times 9th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

Indy100.com Just last week their Ladies For Leave campaign was ridiculed for using gender as a means for supporting Brexit despite women overwhelmingly voting to stay in the EU. Now they are back with a new video aimed at young people and are aiming to highlight the many benefits for young people outside of the EU despite 71 per cent of people between the ages of 18 and 24 voting for Remain in the 2016 referendum. The three prominent speakers in the promotional video are all white men and have a combined age of 122 which is hardly what we would call young. https://www.indy100.com/article/brexit-leave-mean-leave-tim-martin-wetherspoons-video-8815236 9th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Guardian Some 87 of people who were too young to cast a ballot in the 2016 Brexit referendum but have since reached voting age would definitely take part if a second public vote were called according to a new poll. And of the estimated 2 million new young voters 74 would back remain. The survey carried out by BMG on behalf of the antiBrexit youth groups Our Future Our Choice and For Our Futures Sake suggests the youth vote would be crucial in any second remain campaign and could significantly boost its chances of overturning the 2016 leave result. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/09/new-young-voters-want-peoples-vote-strongly-remain-survey 9th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Guardian Channel 4 News said it had seen email sent the morning after Coxs murder from Banks Leave.EUs key financial backer to his assistant Liz Bilney the campaign groups chief executive that read Keep pumping the McKenna video and up the Spend A. The campaign had enlisted the TV hypnotist Paul McKenna to advise on its broadcasts. Bilney replied to Banks Yes thats starting to get traction now and with paid advertising and no active campaigning could get a lot of take up today. Banks responded Exactly press it harder. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/mar/08/arron-banks-ignored-deal-to-stop-pro-brexit-ads-after-jo-cox-death 8th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Washington Post By the relatively lowspending standards of British politics Banks was a huge donor giving 11 million of his own money to the Brexit cause and raising an additional 5 million on top. And heres the peculiarly British part of the story Thanks to Bankss extensive use of tax havens and shell companies it has never been entirely clear where all of that money came from or even whether all of it was really his. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/the-more-we-learn-about-brexit-the-more-crooked-it-looks/2019/03/08/b011517c-411c-11e9-922c-64d6b7840b82_story.html?utm_term=.4c75242d5b63 8th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

Business Insider 1 EU citizens could be deterred from applying to remain in the UK after Brexit due to fears over how the UK government will use information collected during the application process. 2 The Home Office has refused repeated requests from privacy and transparency campaigners to reveal information about the new settled status scheme for EU citizens living in the UK. 3 Around 3 million EU citizens currently live in the country. 4 Campaigners suggest government secrecy about the issue could be breaking the law. https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-home-office-settled-status-eu-citizens-data-2019-3?r=US&ampIR=T 8th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

Politico.eu Industry has spent hundreds of millions on contingency plans it will not be able to recoup even if a lastminute deal can be done and U.K. firms are already reporting drops in sales exports and investment. Farmers are also watching contract orders for this years harvest dry up. The findings are backed up by U.K. government figures showing that domestic business investment has fallen for three consecutive quarters. The last time business investment fell for more than two quarters was in the aftermath of the 2008 economic crash. https://www.politico.eu/article/no-deal-brexit-impacts-have-already-happened/ 8th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Guardian Exiting the EU is a job for the countrys brightest minds. They werent available says Guardian columnist Marina Hyde who then tears into the Ministers in charge of Brexit in a humourous manner https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/08/conservatives-brexit 8th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Guardian The Home Office is the wrong department to manage immigration after Brexit says a highly critical report by the Institute for Government IfG thinktank. The failure to make tradeoffs decide priorities and articulate objectives has damaged public confidence and made it impossible for government to run the system effectively it said adding that the Home Office set up increases its ineffectiveness. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/mar/08/brexit-home-office-should-lose-its-immigration-duties 8th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

BBC Tempers rose in the BBCs Politics Live studio over voting in the EU referendum leading to quite a stareoff between author Will Self and Tory MP Mark Francois. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-47497183/brexit-will-self-and-mark-francois-in-tv-stare-off 8th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Guardian Part of what the prime minister is banking on is Brexit fatigue and the understandable public annoyance that MPs havent been able to sort the issue growing. I think a peoples vote could solve that but even then to hold a referendum responsibly will require a degree of respect between people on all sides of the debate. We must end this toxic environment or no matter where we end up with Europe our country will be divided for generations to come. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/08/brexit-toxic-environment-divided-country-malicious-abuse 8th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

BBC Lawyers for Lord Trimble have told him that his Brexit legal challenge cannot be heard in court at this stage. He is attempting to challenge the legality of the backstop arguing it breaches the Good Friday Agreement. They argued that the case was not capable of being argued in court because no final decision has yet been taken on the backstop and therefore there is nothing for a court to review. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-47491914 8th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

Politics Home Labour peers have launched an astonishing attack on Jeremy Corbyn and condemned his political failure to tackle antisemitism in the party. The Equalities and Human Rights Commission yesterday said Labour may have unlawfully discriminated against people because of their religious beliefs. Its announcement came as it emerged senior officials in the leaders office had advised complaints teams over how to act in disciplinary cases. https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/news/102386/labour-peers-launch-extraordinary-attack-jeremy-corbyn-over 8th Mar 2019

Political Setbacks

The Scotsman Irrespective of the route MPs opt to take next week businesses exhausted by Brexit and hoping Parliament will finally deliver a conclusion to the drama may be sadly disappointed. Even if a deal is passed this is really only akin to reaching base camp. Thereafter the UK must embark on a precarious ascent towards agreeing its future relationship with the EU whilst also working to strike trade deals with countries around the world. https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/comment-mps-vote-is-merely-end-of-act-one-in-brexit-saga-1-4885180 8th Mar 2019